Briefings

Analysis & experiments

Deep dives, model write-ups, and race forecasts — every post grounded in data and honest about its uncertainty.

24races modeled94.6%podium accuracy100ksims / race
Predictions
Featured·May 24, 2026·9 min read

Modeling Silverstone: why our priors gave Verstappen a 61% edge

A Bayesian walk through qualifying pace, tyre degradation, and what the high-speed sweep of Maggotts–Becketts means for race-day overtaking at Silverstone.

Read analysis